According to @cas_abbe, Bitcoin’s realized loss hit $4B yesterday, the highest since the FTX crash, indicating pronounced capitulation pressure that traders often track for bottoming signals (source: @cas_abbe). Short-term holders sold over 60,000 BTC in a single day, highlighting heavy STH distribution typically seen near local troughs from a trading perspective (source: @cas_abbe). The author adds FUD is intensifying around DATs delisting narratives, quantum risk fears, and a hawkish Fed stance, noting that similar FUD extremes in August 2024 and April 2025 preceded market reversals (source: @cas_abbe). Traders can monitor realized loss spikes and STH net distribution extremes as potential bottom indicators while acknowledging that the author expects current prices may later be seen as an obvious bottom (source: @cas_abbe).

According to @cas_abbe, the US Treasury purchased another $785 million of its own debt, but this is currently not easing bond yields because the Federal Reserve is acting hawkish again. Source: @cas_abbe on X, Nov 22, 2025: https://twitter.com/cas_abbe/status/1992209119005331738 According to @cas_abbe, a combination of Fed rate cuts and bond buying would be the catalyst that could pump markets. Source: @cas_abbe on X, Nov 22, 2025: https://twitter.com/cas_abbe/status/1992209119005331738 According to @cas_abbe, until the policy mix shifts to rate cuts plus bond purchases, risk assets including BTC and ETH may not see sustained upside. Source: @cas_abbe on X, Nov 22, 2025: https://twitter.com/cas_abbe/status/1992209119005331738 According to @cas_abbe, the current hawkish tone keeps yields sticky and limits the impact of Treasury buybacks on financial conditions in the near term. Source: @cas_abbe on X, Nov 22, 2025: https://twitter.com/cas_abbe/status/1992209119005331738